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Huobi Co-Founder: We’re at Early Stage of Bitcoin Bear Market, Next Bull Run Expected in 2024
The co-founder of crypto exchange Huobi has shared his view about the current state of the bitcoin market and when the next bull run will be. “We are now at the early stage of a bear market,” he said, expecting the next bitcoin bull market to be around the end of 2024 or the beginning of 2025.
Du Jun, co-founder of cryptocurrency exchange Huobi, discussed when the next bitcoin bull market might be in an interview with CNBC, published Sunday.
The exchange executive explained that bitcoin bull markets are closely tied to the halving, which occurs every 210,000 blocks or approximately every 4 years. The next one will take place in 2024.
He detailed that the last halving took place in May 2020, and bitcoin topped an all-time high above $68,000 in 2021. Similarly, the halving that took place in 2016 saw BTC hitting a record high the following year. The price of bitcoin then tumbled after hitting record highs.
Noting that bitcoin has fallen about 40% since its all-time high in November last year, Du was quoted by the news outlet as saying if the pattern continues:
We are now at the early stage of a bear market … Following this cycle, it won’t be until end of 2024 to beginning of 2025 that we can welcome next bull market on bitcoin.
Nonetheless, he admitted: “It is really hard to predict exactly because there are so many other factors which can affect the market as well — such as geopolitical issues including war, or recent Covid, also affect the market.”
A number of people believe that we are in a crypto winter, including the analysts at Switzerland’s largest bank, UBS, who recently warned of a crypto winter amid expectations of Fed rate hikes and regulation. Last week, veteran trader Peter Brandt also pointed out that bitcoin’s price corrections “can be lengthy.”
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Keep Your Coins Act: US Lawmaker Introduces Bill to Protect Privacy in Cryptocurrency Transactions
A U.S. congressman has introduced the “Keep Your Coins Act” in order to “preserve Americans’ right to privacy in transacting with crypto assets.” The lawmaker says, “this legislation would prohibit any federal agency from promulgating a rule that would impair a person’s ability to act as self-custodian.”
The office of Congressman Warren Davidson (OH-R) announced Thursday that the lawmaker has introduced the Keep Your Coins Act “to protect transaction privacy.”
The announcement explains that the proposed legislation is “designed to preserve Americans’ right to privacy in transacting with crypto assets,” adding:
Specifically, this legislation would prohibit any federal agency from promulgating a rule that would impair a person’s ability to act as self-custodian.
“A person would then be able to conduct peer-to-peer transactions with their crypto assets without the need to utilize a third-party intermediary,” the announcement continues. “This would essentially cut out any need for a financial institution or money service business to facilitate a transaction.”
The lawmaker from Ohio detailed: “As the federal government seeks more regulation of the crypto ecosystem, it seeks to impose more surveillance over American citizens. It’s vital that we preserve the attributes of cash transactions by protecting the permissionless nature of cash.” Rep. Davidson stressed:
No third party should be required for two people (or companies) to use money as a means of exchange, store of value, and record of account. This bill ensures that individuals will always have the ability to transact without any intermediaries.
Davidson announced his intention to launch the bill Tuesday after Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau invoked the Emergencies Act. One of the measures afforded by the Canadian act is for banks and financial service providers to be able to “immediately freeze or suspend the account of an individual or business” affiliated with the Freedom Convoy protests without a court order.
Commenting on the Emergencies Act announcement, Davidson tweeted Tuesday: “Our office will be introducing legislation in the U.S. House of Representatives shortly to protect Americans from this version of overt theft.”
New York Stock Exchange Files Trademark for Offering Trading Services in the Metaverse
The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) has registered a trademark application to offer digital currency and NFT trading services in the metaverse. The application, filed on February 10th, constitutes the first foray of the company into the concept of the metaverse. The organization might be competing with other exchanges and established NFT marketplaces in the future.
The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) is one of the first bourses in the world seeking to anticipate the rise of virtual worlds and the business opportunities associated with them. The company filed a trademark application on February 10 to offer trading services using augmented and virtual reality tools, this meaning that the NYSE might be thinking of opening a metaverse-based trading platform.
The applications mention several keywords, including:
Downloadable virtual reality, augmented reality, and mixed reality software; downloadable software for enabling users to experience virtual reality and augmented reality visualization, manipulation, and immersion.
The filings also mention the technology for offering trading services for NFTs and digital currencies. This would put NYSE as a direct competitor to other already established markets such as Opensea and Rarible. According to Michael Kondoudis, a trademark lawyer, this is proof of the importance of the metaverse as part of the business model of the financial institution. He stated:
This filing is the latest confirmation that the metaverse is real and businesses need to plan accordingly. Businesses no longer need to wonder if it is going to happen. It is just a matter of when.
Companies are rallying to offer their services in the metaverse to gain advantage as first movers. This is the opinion of Kondoudis, who has reported several similar applications of companies trying to push their presence into these burgeoning virtual worlds. He stated:
The NYSE is clearing taking a proactive, forward-thinking approach to ensure that it is the leading financial exchange in the metaverse.
Other financial companies also seem to be taking the metaverse seriously. This is the case with JPMorgan, one of the biggest investment banks in the world, that just recently opened a lounge in Decentraland, a metaverse-based platform.
This week, Victoria’s Secret, the famous lingerie company, also filed several trademark applications to offer its products in virtual worlds as NFTs.
Russian Regulators Find Common Ground — Bitcoin Can’t Be Used for Payments
Russian authorities are yet to reach full consensus on the future of cryptocurrencies but government institutions are on the same side of the fence in their intention to ban bitcoin payments. Other operations with digital assets are to be legalized and regulated, representatives of Russian business have revealed.
The Central Bank of Russia, the Ministry of Finance and the government have converged on the question of how to regulate Russia’s crypto space. Decentralized digital currencies will not be accepted as a means of payment, the head of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs (RSPP) Alexander Shokhin told reporters following a meeting devoted to digitalization.
Last month, Bank of Russia urged for a wide-ranging ban of crypto-related activities, including their use in payments, exchange and mining. The hardline policy proposal was met with opposition from other institutions, including the finance ministry which came up with its own vision of how cryptocurrencies should be treated. Siding with the treasury’s stance, the federal government adopted a plan which favors regulation over prohibition.
“It is already clear that both sides in this discussion have generally come closer. In particular, if we are talking about prohibitions, then that is rather about a ban on the use of cryptocurrency as a means of payment, while other aspects are subject to regulation,” Shokhin was quoted as saying by the daily Izvestia. According to the government-approved regulatory concept, coins can be bought, exchanged, and sold, the report notes.
Vladimir Potanin, co-chairman of RSPP’s Coordinating Council and president of Nornickel, noted that the regulatory bodies are still seeking agreement on the details of Russia’s crypto framework but he emphasized that all of them support a ban on the use of cryptocurrency as a legal tender.
“The business community has reached an understanding with the government, the central bank and lawmakers that cryptocurrencies are more complicated and difficult to regulate than digital financial assets,” the billionaire elaborated, quoted by Forklog.
While regulating certain aspects of the crypto economy such as the issuance of tokens, the Russian law “On Digital Financial Assets,” which went into force in January of last year, left many unanswered questions. A working group at the State Duma, the lower house of parliament, is now preparing legislation to fill the gaps.
A new law introducing comprehensive rules for the circulation of cryptocurrencies in Russia, based on the finance ministry’s proposals, is expected by Feb. 18. Earlier this week, the chairman of the Financial Market Committee Anatoly Aksakov announced that a draft is already on his desk. Deputies plan to adopt it during the spring session of the Duma.
RBI: Cryptocurrency Is a Big Threat to Macroeconomic and Financial Stability in India
The governor of India’s central bank, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), has reiterated his concerns that cryptocurrency is a “big threat” to the country’s financial and macroeconomic stability. He also warned investors of the risks of investing in crypto, stating this type of investment has no underlying value.
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das said during a press conference Thursday that cryptocurrency is a major threat to India’s macroeconomic and financial stability.
Referring to any crypto not backed by the central bank as “private cryptocurrency,” Governor Das was quoted by local media as saying:
Private cryptocurrency, or whatever name you call, is a big threat to our macroeconomic stability and financial stability.
He explained that any cryptocurrencies with currency-like property will undermine the RBI’s ability to deal with financial and macroeconomic stability issues.
The central bank governor proceeded to warn investors about the risks of investing in cryptocurrencies. Referring to the Dutch tulip bulb market bubble in the 17th century, he cautioned:
Investors in cryptocurrency should keep in mind that they are investing at their own risk. They should also keep in mind that the cryptocurrency has no underlying, not even a tulip.
Das noted that the RBI’s position is very clear on crypto. He said in early January that cryptocurrencies are “prone to fraud and to extreme price volatility, given their highly speculative nature.” The governor stressed: “Long-term concerns relate to capital flow management, financial and economic stability, monetary policy transmission, and currency substitution.”
In December last year, the RBI urged the Indian government to completely ban cryptocurrency, stating that a partial ban will not work. However, the government is still consulting with various stakeholders to come up with an appropriate crypto policy.
Meanwhile, the RBI is working on a central bank digital currency (CBDC), the digital rupee. India’s finance minister, Nirmala Sitharaman, announced last week during her budget speech that the digital rupee will be issued in the financial year 2022-23.
Bitcoin, Ethereum Technical Analysis: Bitcoin Hits $43,000 After Tesla Announcement
Following a strong weekend, bitcoin’s surge continued to start the week, as Tesla announced close to $2 billion worth of holdings in BTC. Overall, crypto markets were around 3% higher on Monday.
Bitcoin, which consolidated for the majority of last week, moved closer to a three-week high today, climbing by as much as 3% as of writing.
BTC/USD rose to an intraday high above $43,500.00 during Monday’s session, as markets reacted to the news that Tesla currently holds $1.9 billion in bitcoin.
The move came as bitcoin marginally broke out of its resistance level of $42,060 for the first time since January 21.
As of writing, the RSI also climbed to a high point, tracking above its long-term ceiling of 60, which it last hit in mid-November.
Monday’s move has also led to a crossover of the 10-day (red) and 25-day (blue) moving averages, which many long-term bulls have been waiting for.
Bulls may take this as a sign to add more upward pressure to prices, with some targeting $45,000 as the next point of profit taking.
ETH was also tracking at multi-week highs on Monday, as bulls continue to flock to the world’s second largest cryptocurrency.
As of writing, ETH/USD climbed to a high of $3,111.16 today, after trading at $2,965.43 less than 24-hours ago.
Overall, ethereum is up over 20% in the last week, coming as its 14-RSI broke beyond two key resistance levels in that time.
The first break came after a break above 44 on February 3, followed by Saturday’s surge above the 55 ceiling.
These moves have created a shift in both the 10-day and 25-day moving averages, which, similar to BTC, is set for a crossover.